Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.153065 2.263497 2.381381 2.517476 2.671433 2.841654 3.046202
2025-04-20 1.994323 2.138441 2.299291 2.494754 2.729729 3.008640 3.374075
2025-04-27 1.969481 2.142757 2.342744 2.595789 2.915792 3.320397 3.896820
2025-05-04 1.882468 2.067716 2.286351 2.570807 2.943870 3.438715 4.193602
2025-05-11 1.835981 2.033800 2.272005 2.589993 3.021782 3.622616 4.608728
2025-05-18 1.755258 1.953630 2.195229 2.522569 2.976309 3.626546 4.745773
2025-05-25 1.713653 1.918422 2.171321 2.520398 3.017192 3.757367 5.118834
2025-06-01 1.669121 1.877293 2.137322 2.501765 3.032062 3.849366 5.447827
2025-06-08 1.629946 1.840735 2.106675 2.484533 3.045599 3.938330 5.794404
2025-06-15 1.608463 1.825690 2.103187 2.504350 3.115835 4.131226 6.436012
2025-06-22 1.554859 1.767004 2.038825 2.433455 3.038913 4.055296 6.417370
2025-06-29 1.519621 1.731166 2.003858 2.403142 3.023895 4.089592 6.694002
2025-07-06 1.485709 1.696951 1.971026 2.376062 3.014977 4.139834 7.057201
2025-07-13 1.472291 1.689211 1.973837 2.401357 3.093510 4.370232 8.101943
2025-07-20 1.471509 1.697868 1.999134 2.461203 3.235478 4.759412 10.159893
2025-07-27 1.451042 1.679319 1.985477 2.460455 3.271878 4.931089 11.643472
2025-08-03 1.433013 1.663389 1.974714 2.463256 3.314405 5.126328 13.734408
2025-08-10 1.399316 1.625230 1.930981 2.411874 3.253019 5.058568 13.955257
2025-08-17 1.380365 1.606757 1.914891 2.403726 3.271778 5.196161 16.276608
2025-08-24 1.360973 1.587165 1.896517 2.390945 3.280590 5.310808 19.082708
2025-08-31 1.340900 1.566130 1.875374 2.372632 3.277143 5.392399 22.282991
2025-09-07 1.332754 1.561316 1.877593 2.392388 3.349814 5.707677 35.948655
2025-09-14 1.300921 1.522883 1.829432 2.326879 3.246886 5.482768 30.281729